Monday, November 06, 2006

TBA Standings have it right....HOTY still Bernardini

Bernardini, despite a loss in the BC, through no fault of his (why did they try and rate this horse and not let him run may have cost him the win last Saturday), wins the points race so if we have the points awarded equitably, he still wins the Horse of the Year title in my mind. If there is controversy, then either take a look at the point system and try and figure out what needs revised or go with the points leader. Interestingly, Michael Matz agrees in this interview on NTRA site

I would like to some "fans choice" voting, like the All Star balloting in Baseball. I would like to see a "race of the year" for dirt and turf. Somehow I secretly just want some award to go to my favorite horse of the year, you got it, The Tin Man. The Arlington Millions was a race I enjoyed almost better than any other, gate to wire baby!

Oh well, what do I know, I didn't even play my hunch Invasor and in my strategy to hit some long shot to look brilliant, so I completely blew the prestigious first annual TBA BC Handicapper of the Millennium contest.

Now comes the winter of some discontent with the promise of a new crop of 3 y/o to begin focusing on for that Triple Crown Chase 2007.

Friday, November 03, 2006

TBA Contest BC Picks, comments, okay outright guesses

I am not sure this is exactly the way my wagering will work out, most likely I will cast my luck with some exotics that include more chalk, the goal here is to avoid chalk, appear brilliant and somehow resurrect my fading handicapping skills with pulling a stunning "outta nowhere" victory in the winner takes all TBA BC Handicapping Contest where runner-up is just "first loser"! So, with that, here are my picks, comments, and otherwise brilliant guesswork. To the rest of the TBA I say, "It's on"! Hope everyone has a great BC Day! By the way, the reports from the Downs this week by Ruben Bailey at Your Average Horseplayer have been nothing short of spectacular and really have got me fired up for the races and made me feel more a part of BC week. Check them out and thanks!!

Race #1: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: no idea here really but Bridgmohan has had a hot hand lately.
(Pgm. No. 12) Appealing Zophie

Race #2: Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile: honestly, this is pretty much a guess too
(Pgm. No. 3) Scat Daddy

Race #3: Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup F&M Turf: hard to pick against Ouija Board but she will be overbet and off at not much of a price and this is a contest right???
(Pgm. No. 7) Wait a While

Race #4: TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint: local Lexington connections, I have a soft spot for this horse and should get a nice price. Photo win.
(Pgm. No. 14) Kelly`s Landing

Race #5: NetJets Breeders' Cup Mile: Here is where the Irish horses actually begin to shine. The cool crisp weather will agree with them. I do like Aragorn in this one as well but we are just playing one to win.
(Pgm. No. 3) Araafa (IRE)

Race #6: Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Distaff: capable of picking up the pieces at the end, a lot of speed fades at the final turn at Churchill.
(Pgm. No. 2) Pine Island

Race #7: John Deere Breeders' Cup Turf: always have liked this horse and is an important part of my Irish bred strategy. (which I borrowed from John over at Not to the Swift who used this in the Arlington Millions and was not so lucky but I am resurrecting the strategy here)

(Pgm. No. 6) Cacique (IRE)

Race #8: Breeders' Cup Classic - Powered by Dodge:alright, I'll admit it is hard to ignore the Bernardini press and like Patrick over at Pulling Hair, I love the "Mane Event" poster with he and Lava Man, but I am trying to pull this contest out with some brilliant selection that will stretch my $2 so......(and in reality I secretly like Invasor and Bernardini in an Exacta Box here but probably won't bet it as the payout is likely to be about $5) Plus how can you not like an Irish horse named George Washington? Betting against him is unamerican!
(Pgm. No. 4) George Washington (IRE)