Remember this week-end!

Rank Handicapper Wins/Races Profit or (Loss) Analysis danahejk 5/8 $16.80

Tampa Bay Breeders' Cup 1. Dynareign 2. Icy Atlantic 3. Fort Prado

Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup 1. Einstein 2. Gun Salute 3. Honor in War

Southwest S. 1. Lawyer Ron 2. Red Raymond 3. Music School

Pro Or Con H. 1. Moscow Burning 2. Overnightsensation 3. Cyber Slew

My picks for last week-end in Feb., too bad I had no real $$$ but hope this is just the start of things to come!

Fun contest at Public Handicapper

Bluegrass Cat gets off to a good start on the road to the Derby

WinStar Farm's homebred Bluegrass Cat kicked off his 3-year-old campaign with a dogged victory over 63-1 shot Deputy Glitters in the $121,000 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs Saturday. Bluegrass Cat won his fourth straight race since losing his debut start in June. The son of Storm Cat-She's a Winner (A.P. Indy) and trained by Todd Pletcher. He was ridden by Ridden by John Velazquez in this 1-1/16 mile test. "He was a fresh horse and ran exactly the way we wanted him to," Pletcher said. "Our intention is to return for the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III)."


Photo: Tampa Bay Downs

How do you handicap?

Let me count the ways! There are so many methods and angles, it is hard for a relative newcomer to keep up with the myriad ways to pick a pony! I have picked-up the "Authoritative Guide to Betting Thoroughbreds" from the BloodHorse just so I know enough to be dangerous with a Daily Racing Form. I also tried the DRF Formulator which I think helped save time and actually I had Dawn of War at about 46-1 at Keeneland this past Fall and finished in the top 40 in their online handicapping contest. Not really solid credentials but I'm learning. Anyway, I have started listening to Derek Simon's podcast and it has some really great strategies and picks to consider. I really enjoy sifting through workouts, past performances, distance and Beyers to look for a value play but realistically as a guy with 2 kids, 2 jobs and 2 horses, well...I must admit I am looking for shortcuts! If anyone stumbles on this blog and has any wisdom they would like to impart, please drop me a note! In the meantime I am planning on posting some picks for some upcoming races in preparation for my "serious gambling" during the Keeneland Spring meet...I still like seeing the ponies in person and making my wager at the track!

A day at the races

My 9 yr old daughter and I have a tradition that started last spring and we plan on continuing with every meet at Keeneland. We target a Friday, keeping our fingers crossed for good weather, sunny, spring or fall day, t-shirt or light jacket weather when we plot our getaway. I take off at lunchtime and head straight for her school where she gets out for a "dentist" appointment. We drive straight for our day at the races. We prefer to go mobile and hang by the rail and alternate to the paddock and then squish through the crowd and head to the winners circle. We both love the beauty of the day. Keeneland is a gorgeously landscaped, tradition-laden track where echoes of the past can be heard on every race day. We love to take it all in. We pull a wooden green bench down to the rail and stand from each post parade to the heart-thumping finish. We pick winners sometimes and that adds to the excitement. We watch the business in the paddock and marvel at the power and beauty of the horses. My daugther rides so she likes to watch the jockeys mount and balance their way on the backs of these powerful animals. The pounding hoofs, the roar of the crowd and the sheer fun of our day at the track have made me look forward to these days each season. I especially look forward to these days on a cold wintry week-end in February. Come on Spring!

Stevie Wonderboy OFF the Derby Trail!

Arggghhhh! Not only did I like this fella, especially for his connections, he will miss the Derby and there goes one of my RoadtotheRoses stable favorites.....
ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) - Stevie Wonderboy has a small fracture in his right front leg that will keep the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion and Eclipse winner out of the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Doug O'Neill said the colt came out of a workout Monday with the injury.

"Stevie Wonderboy worked great today, then came out of it with a little filling in his ankle," O'Neill said. "We X-rayed it and he's got a hairline fracture of his right front ankle. They're supposed to do surgery in a couple of days.

"He will be out at Merv Griffin's farm in La Quinta (Calif.) for 90 days before coming back into training."

Owned by hotel and television magnate Griffin, Stevie Wonderboy finished second behind Brother Derek in his 3-year-old debut in the Jan. 14 San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita.

Stevie Wonderboy was considered one of the early favorites for the Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs. No 2-year-old champion has gone on to win the race for 3-year-olds since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

"We're all disappointed, and Merv was upset, but the important thing is that he'll be back," O'Neill told the Bloodhorse.com website

Lael Stable's Barbaro became one of the most accomplished sophomores in training with a three-quarter length triumph in the grade III Holy Bull. Under jockey Edgar Prado, the son of Dynaformer was making his main track debut following three previous wins on the turf. He completed the mile and an eighth in 1:49.30. Looks like a contender!

KY "YUM" Derby....oh no

What's next, the Sport of Kings, sponsored by "the King".....I guess it's too much to hope that the greatest 2 minutes in sports could resist the easy $$ of corporate sponsors...too bad they couldn't take a page out of the PGA handbook and go the way of The Masters....

Bailey, Sunshine Millions, Handicapping, NTRA Widget

Well after suffering through a week in Denver on business without access to TVG, I missed the Eclipse awards but looks like no surprises there. Nice week-end watching the Sunshine Millions even if the telecast was delayed by NHL OT (which was exciting too). Tough loss for Jerry Bailey and he got a kick in the Paddock by Silver Tree, basically saying don't let the stall door hit you on the way out, somewhat humbling one of the greatest jockeys of all time who took it all in stride with the grace you would expect of an experienced pro. Not such a good day for yours truly who liked Buzzards Bay. And finally, I think I would like to keep honing my "skills" as a handicapper and maybe enter a qualifier for the DRF Handicapping Challenge at Keeneland as that looks like a lot of fun in Vegas! And finally, if you haven't tried out the desktop "widgets", the NTRA has one that works well and I am actually test driving it without problems so far.

Well Armed, another Derby hopeful to add to the list

WinStar Colt, Well Armed, son of Tiznow, wins big in Dubai, now being pointed toward the Derby.
According to reports the colt ran very well in a huge, 16 horse field and had no problem with the 1 1/16 mile distance. Might be worth keeping an eye on this fella. By the way, want to see an absolutely fantastic racing website, check out Emirates Racing

Jerry Bailey's Retirement Imminent

Well my daughter's favorite jockey will make it official and retire from the rack on Jan. 28. She read his recent book and really enjoyed learning how he overcame his problems and became one of the best jockeys of all time. Personally, I find it nothing short of miraculous that he has so few injuries during a 31 yr. career! If you ever climbed on the back of a 1,000 lb 16HH Thoroughbred even to just canter around the field, you begin to appreciate the athleticism and concentration that is required of a jockey. Then match that with the astounding success someone like Jerry Bailey has had and you can only be in awe.
Photo from Copyright 2005 Associated Press. All right reserved.

Brother Derek wins San Rafael

California bred Brother Derek outlasted a late charge from Stevie Wonderboy. This was the first 2 turn race for Stevie Wonderboy and he was closing but Brother Derek gamely dug in down the stretch and both horses looked prime for 1 1/16 mile test on down the road to the Derby. Full story and photos at NTRA

San Rafael Stakes--Small but interesting field

Stevie Wonderboy, ridden by Garrett Gomez looks to take a big first step of 2006 toward the first Saturday in May. Brother Derek, with Alex Solis aboard, is the odds on challenger. The only other horse getting any press is the Bob Baffert trained Wanna Runner who is expected to be the pacesetter. Interesting race but not a great value to bet due to such a short field of 6. Also, worth watching to see Merv Griffin's reaction. Merv is fun to watch because he is clearly excited just to be at the track, and we can all relate to that! Horsephotos.com

KY Derby Site 2006 is Up!

Oh it's on! Derby preps this week-end, the 2006 Derby site is up and the first Future wager pool is mere weeks away. I can almost feel Spring in the air! (especially since we had a couple of 60 degree days this week---no global warming here, nothing to see...move along!)
POOL 1 - Jan. 26-29
POOL 2 - March 2-5
POOL 3 - April 6-9

Saint Liam: HOTY?

Saint Liam checking me out at Lane's End Farm during their Annual Stallion Open House last Saturday. He looks like he is in fine shape and ready for his freshman breeding season. I think he showed a lot of heart in all of his races and with the win in the BC, I think he is the 2005 Horse of the Year. Looks like we'll know as the 35th annual Eclipse Awards are just around the corner and will be televised again this year on TVG.

Hello Horse Racing Fans

Apparently you are not watching any races right now? Well, being dead winter here, there is still a lot going on. Foals are starting to drop all around the BlueGrass, like Smarty Jones first offspring.
The Keeneland January Sale set a record with over $68 Million worth of horses sold this week!

I am hoping to use this blog to keep up with the Derby Trail, focus on the Keeneland meets, where you will find my attention during April and October every year.