Nifty Knitting has Barbaro on the mend

I find this xray completely amazing and a tribute to the equine surgeons.

Barbaro makes it thru surgery!

Absolutely great updates on the Tim Woolley Fair Hill Racing site from Alex. It is hard to concentrate on any other aspect of racing right now, that's for sure. Let's hope Barbaro is spared and makes a recovery for a nice stud career here in the bluegrass!
Just saw post-surgery comments from his surgeon and Michael Matz. And despite the early success of the surgery the surgeon's sobering quote was "His chances are still a coin toss".

Amazing post-op recovery room photo

Thoughts and Prayers to Barbaro and his surgeons

“The sight of him did something to me I've never quite been able to explain. He was more than tremendous strength and speed and beauty of motion. He set me dreaming.”

Preakness Picks

Barbaro on top no doubt,
6-7-5-1 Superfecta
6-1-9-7 Sillyfecta
6-2-7-5 Only if snow falls during the race fecta

Probably my contribution to the Preakness take if nothing else but you never know. Even when you know, you never know. Hope everyone has fun Saturday and here's hoping for a clean trip and continuing the pursuit for 2006 Triple Crown winner Barbaro!

Preakness update or the unofficial Barbaro fan site!

I can't wait to see what John over at Not to the Swift thinks about Like Now's post position, I know he likes those odds! Also, had some great sites drop by and leave some links so if you want more info on where Barbaro is hanging out, namely at the beautiful Fair Hill training center in Maryland, you should check out Tim Woolley Racing and the Fair Hill site. Anyway, here is the post draw and current pre-race odds. The question is how far down will Barbaro get bet and I am really going to be scouring this field to nail a trifecta ticket! PREAKNESS 131 FIELD Purse: $1,000,000 added - 1 3/16 miles
Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	M/L Odds
1	Like Now	Garrett Gomez	Kiaran McLaughlin	12-1
2	Platinum Couple	Jose Espinoza	Joseph Lostritto	50-1
3	Hemingway's Key	Jeremy Rose	Nick Zito	30-1
4	Greeley's Legacy	Richard Migliore	George Weaver	20-1
5	Brother Derek	Alex Solis	Dan Hendricks	3-1
6	Barbaro	Edgar Prado	Michael Matz	Even
7	Sweetnorthernsaint	Kent Desormeaux	Michael Trombetta	4-1
8	Bernardini	Javier Castellano	Tom Albertrani	8-1
9	Diabolical	Ramon Dominguez	Steve Klesaris	30-1

Who is Peter Brette? Barbaro knows!

Peter Brette, 40, excercise rider and assistant trainer for Derby winning trainer Michael Matz is a former English jockey who had a long riding career in Dubai. Here are some excerpts from various articles around the web. I think that Barbaro is lucky to be teamed with such a great pair of horsemen like Matz and Brette.Brette was born and raised in the northeastern part of England in Stockton-on-Tees. The town dates to 1138 and is set on high ground close to the northern bank of the River Tees. His uncle worked as the "head lad" for trainer Tony Hyde at the famed Newmarket racecourse. At age 14, during an Easter vacation, Brette paid a visit and his uncle gave him a leg up on one of his horses and told him to ride. Two years later, Brette left school to begin a jockey apprenticeship in which he would ride four or five sets a day. Then he launched his professional career.
"When you enjoy what you’re doing, you learn quickly," Brette said. "It’s a natural progression. You want to be the best." After a couple of years, Brette moved over to the stable of one of England’s leading trainers - Michael Stout. "He had good horses and you learn so much from talented horses," Brette said. "It’s sort of like going from driving a Honda to a Ferrari."
Brette rode for five years in England before following a Tony Hyde associate to Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, to work for trainer Bill Mather. Arriving in 1986, he was offered a winter contract to ride for Godolphin Stable, which races some of the best-bred 2-year-olds in the world. Based in both Dubai and Newmarket, Godolphin was set up by Dubai’s ruling family, the Maktoums, with Sheik Mohammed the driving force behind the operation. Dubai is the most populous of the emirates and the second largest in terms of size. "I went over there with an open mind and found them to be superb people to work for," Brette said. "It’s a beautiful place to work and live, a bit like living in Disneyland. The people were brilliant and very good to me."
Sitting aboard top stock, Brette thrived on his wits and smart game plans. The leading jockey on the Dubai circuit in 1990 and runner-up in 1994-95, he spent his final four years in Dubai also working as an assistant trainer. His wife Kim, who is from Zimbabwe, was an assistant trainer and rider in England. They met again in Dubai and married. They have a 2-½ year old son, Nicholas. While Brette rode lots of top-quality horses in Dubai, none compare to Barbaro.
"Without a doubt, he’s heads-and-shoulders above them," Brette said. "When Sheik Mohammed heard about Barbaro, he said, Wow.’ The last time he said that was over Dubai Millenium."
Dubai Millenium was considered a superhorse in Europe on the grass, a kind of Secretariat.Brette believes Barbaro is going to be as good or better. "When he runs on grass he has those amazing gears," he said. "But because he was talented on the turf, I wondered about him handling the dirt. It’s very hard to repeat that on the dirt. But the way he ran in the Florida Derby, we knew he was something very special. He went in as a boy and came out a man.

Shrinking away from Barbaro

Wow, first it looked like a field of 14 but now I am reading there will be only 5-6 challengers to Barbaro taking the second leg of the triple crown next Saturday.

Horses pointing for the 131st Preakness at Pimlico on May 20.

HORSE	TRAINER	JOCKEY	LAST RACE
Barbaro	M. Matz	E. Prado	1st, Ky. Derby
Bernardini	T. Albertrani	J. Castellano	1st, Withers
Brother Derek	D. Hendricks	A. Solis	4th*, Ky. Derby
Hemingway's Key	N. Zito	J. Rose	8th, Lexington
Like Now	K. McLaughlin	G. Gomez	2nd, Lexington
Sweetnorthernsaint	M. Trombetta	K. Desormeaux	7th, Ky. Derby
Possible entrants
Ah Day	K. Leatherbury	R. Fogelsonger	1st, Tesio

Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital

Lawyer Ron will be undergoing surgery in Lexington at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital. In a previous career I was a respiratory therapist and some fellow therapists would be employed each spring during foaling season to set up Bennett MA-1 mechanical ventilators on newborn foals that needed some help breathing. Rood & Riddle has an interesting web site that provides a glimpse into the world of equine veterinary medicine.

Preakness Possibilities or who is running for 2nd?

Horses pointing for the 131st Preakness at Pimlico on May 20. The field will be limited to 14

HORSE	TRAINER	JOCKEY	LAST RACE
Barbaro	M. Matz	E. Prado	1st, Ky. Derby
Bernardini	T. Albertrani	J. Castellano	1st, Withers
Brother Derek	D. Hendricks	A. Solis	4th-dh, Ky. Derby
Hemingway's Key	N. Zito	J. Rose	8th, Lexington
Like Now	K. McLaughlin	undecided	2nd, Lexington
Sweetnorthernsaint	M. Trombetta	K. Desormeaux	7th, Ky. Derby
Possible entrants
Bob and John	B. Baffert	G. Gomez	17th, Ky. Derby
Lewis Michael	W. Catalano	M. Guidry	4th, Ill. Derby
Point Determined	B. Baffert	R. Bejarano	9th, Ky. Derby

It sounds like a small field so traffic shouldn't be a problem and it doesn't look like it is going to set-up with a lot of speed. Considering this is Barbaro's backyard, I am not really going out on a limb here by saying he should take this race easily. I think the handicapping trick in the Preakness will be picking who will place and show.

Preakness field changing?

I just heard a report on Lexington Fox affiliate 10pm news announcing that Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer and Jazil will all skip the Preakness and point to Belmont. Think Barbaro has scared them off? I hope he can prove he has the stamina as I think the sport needs a Triple Crown Winner. It would be a nice shot in the arm and the trainer has enough good karma to help polish up the sports reputation. I also heard Lawyer Ron had xrays and complete exam (maybe that is standard after a big race....I just don't know) but he sure started going backwards early and it didn't look like he had all that bad of a trip. I wonder if his racing schedule has caught up with him or if he is injured? He did not run like the same horse I saw at Oaklawn.

Barbaro destroys the field....on to the Preakness?

Get the hat, get the shirt....now!
My Wife cashes our only ticket, Win-Place on Barbaro although I had him in many exotics, my choice Lawyer Ron was clearly outclassed.
With that stride and that performance, the next question appears how will Barbaro do with a very short couple of weeks to the Preakness?
Let the wild specualtion begin but what a convincing horse! WOW!

My Derby Tickets

Looks like this:

Win Tickets on 2, 12, 16 Trifecta 16,11,10 Superfecta Box 2,5,8,17 Superfecta 17,8,5,18 Exacta Box 2,8,17 $45 total

Derby Selections

There goes Lawyer Ron digging in down the stretch, passing horses like they are standing still, many fading fast due to the fierce pace and who's that high stepping colt coming along for an exciting finish, none other than the well-rested Barbaro, a horse that may well hurt Triple Crown chances for my boy Ron!
I will of course be obliged to play some insane exotics to spark the dream of big money and as unlikely as I think it is now, my Derby Future on Point Determined might have some life.
Otherwise I will be busy at the DRF Triple Crown Challenge picking the order of finish...for all 20 horses! Now that is funny! I hope everyone has a great Derby Day and may all your wagers payoff so long as they don't conflict with mine!

KY Oaks: the good, the bad, the ugly

Well partly because I only cashed 2 meager tickets all day and mostly because I could kick myself in the tail for not putting a few bucks on Lemons Forever, my excursion to the mecca of horseracing left me understanding clearly that the Derby Party scene has clearly displaced the horse racing as the attraction. In one of the more familly unfriendly environments, we enjoyed the beautiful day but our seats were less than optimal, we could glimpse the horses as they came through the final turn, otherwise we were forced to watch on a large screen that apparenly was left over from some high school's yard sale. I never did clearly hear one call of a race as the sound system would not pass muster for a local garage band and if that wasn't discouraging enough, the constant drone of "Get your Mint Julep"($8) and "Get your cold Beer"($6) really made hearing the race impossible. Also, the lines at the windows were unbelievable, the lack of automated betting machines was appalling and overall I would not go back to those seats, ever again. I have been at Churchill before but sat way up high and it is like being at a different track from the bleacher bum seats we were in today. My daughter did squeeze down to the rail for a couple of races and also in the paddock for the Oaks, but otherwise we see more horse racing in our own backyard! Well, what did I expect? I knew the crowd would be large and I knew the partying would be the focus of many racegoers and for the most part, the behavior was mild. I blame the track management who let the garbage cans overflow, basically held you up to place an armband on you to get you to your bleacher seat but then sold mint juleps in glass glasses....not the most briliant plan. Oh well, I will be having a small Derby party and watching on tv and placing bets on Bodog from the comfort of my home tomorrow and I now know that unless you are in a real seat, the bleachers are not where you want to be if you want to see a race
.

Kentucky OAKS Selections

Race 10--OAKS 1 1/8 mi 3 y/o Fillies $500,000

#10 Bushfire 5-1 (if no rain) on top
with
#4 Balance 2-1
#12 Ermine 12-1
#7 Wonder Lady Anne L 8-1

I may wind up playing some kind of ticket with #13 Last Romance only on gut instinct and Bejarano's knack for hitting the board....
Needless to say, if it stays dry, I like Bushfire.

Hopefully the racing gods will smile on my old kentucky home and the sun will shine bright and I will cash tickets all day long. I will post as many pics as are worthwhile in my first journey into the heart
of Churchill Downs for the Oaks, live, up close and personal!!

Post Positions are set, am I?

Oh boy, here we go, Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron way outside in the 132nd Stampede for the Roses. 20 horses with about a 1/4 mile before they hit the first turn. The early speed being inside figures to help clear the way a bit for the outside horses to settle in a stalking position but the blazing speed in this race figures to wear some of the speed horses out for the stretch run for sure. The only injury being reported so far this week is a small hoof bruise for speedster and BlueGrass Stakes winner Sinister Minister (post 4). So, things are starting to fall into place a bit and then, watching TVG reports on the morning workouts and schooling in the starting gate from this morning and damned if Gary Stevens doesn't start talking about how Sweetnorthernsaint's hind legs look "stiff".....ouch...a horse I was really starting to cozy up to in at least a nice exacta wager with my buddy Lawyer Ron and at 10-1, a nice price too, but now how can I ignore a respected jockey like Stevens? Wow, just when you thought you had this race figured out....
One thing is for sure, this just being Wednesday and this field shaping up as having at least 6 really quality horses, the wagering selections just got tougher and it will surely take me until Saturday morning to make a firm...okay shakey...decision! Now I gotta start looking hard at the Oaks!!!!

Oaks Picks (maybe.....)

Last Romance--strong finisher, good mudder family line, Bejarano up, Post 13, early line 15-1
Bushfire--capable of gate to wire, holds off late chargers and can go head to head, Post 10, 8-1
Balance--favorite but I think this horse has been moving backwards since peaking in mid-March at Santa Anita, maybe a piece of the action but no better than 3rd


The more races I review, I am still influenced and impressed by Bushfire and I like Last Romance. Probably a Win ticket on Bushfire and Exacta Box with Last Romance.

(of course this just being Tuesday, and with my infamous skill at betting to win and the horse placing or my ability to ignore obvious tips, I probably get to the track on Friday and bet Lemons Forever!)

Derby Post Positions Live Wed. 5pm ESPN

And for yet another factor to consider when making those wagering plans: take notice of who gets the 1, 4, 5, 10 slots!
(1900 - 2005)

Position	Wins
1	12
2	9
3	8
4	10
5	12
6	6
7	7
8	8
9	4
10	10
11	3
12	3
13	4
14	2
15	3
16	3
17	0
18	1
19	0
20	1

I'm going to the Oaks!

My wife has scored 4 tics to the Oaks on Friday. So, while I was at Keeneland for a major prep and did see Balance get beaten by Bushfire in the Ashland on April 8th, I really have not been following the fillies very closely. Anyway, my main focus is still on the boys and the Derby, which I think I have almost figured out (Lawyer Ron, Sweetnorthernsaint), I now have the pleasant distraction of looking more closely at the Oaks! Not a bad situation to be in. Maybe my trip to Churchill will break me out of my 0-4 closing day at Keeneland.....more later!

Garland of Lillies for the Fillies

Derby Horses begin showing up at Churchill

I read Steve Haskin's article at BloodHorse and he is either really biased towards Sweetnothernsaint or that horse may merit a longer look than I have given him. I do know that before the Illinois Derby that Jill Byyrne was really high on this colt.

The unique world of the horse mind

Okay, some who read my posts know that we are the proud owners of 2 horses, one a retired thoroughbred 18yrs young whose tatooed lip is too faded to read completely. Anyway, Quinn is my favorite of the two, probably because he is a lot like me, stubborn but loyal, hardheaded but a really nice-hearted fella. Anyway, I usually do not get too attached to pets but I have made an exception with Quinn. Well this past Sunday my daughter decided at 6:30pm it was time to ride Finn, her quarterhorse jumper, just for a short hack in the pasture and she would like me to put Quinn in his stall because he "follows me around". Anyway, being the ever obliging groom I tossed Quinn in his stall (with a little sweet feed) and after an hour I knew he would be ready to get out of there so we put Finn in the grooming stall in crossties to untack and I opened Quinn's stall and turned him back out. Now usually he would maybe canter to the back corner of the pasture and turn and give us a stare and return to grazing at the most reminding us not to put him in his stall, that he's a horse meant to run free. Anyway, Sunday was different. He promptly shot around the perimeter of our pasture (1/4 mile) at a flat out gallop barely cutting the corners and promptly make 8 laps or almost 2 miles! It was amazing! We had seen him gallop and play before but nothing like this. I ran and got a little video on my digital camera but it was dusk and the quality is pretty hazy but the memory is burned in my mind. The neighbors were out and remarked it looked like we had wound him up like a toy. We all stood there in awe of the power and grace of our 18yr old gelding....and me with thoughts of how to get this fella back to the track if for nothing else but the made for tv movie! I gotta say, I love the thoroughbred.

Wet Times at Keeneland

A few dry moments before the rains came...

"I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for a while"

The rain would not subside and actually poured very hard at the time my daughter really wanted to stand at the rail (during the 9th race steeplechase). I got some horrible photos of rainsoaked proportions and actually got a video of one of the riders tumbling to the turf--yikes! But after Thursday's tragedy, at least all riders and horses left in one piece. I keep hearing that the new poytrack surface will do so much to improve safety for the horses and riders. You know, all sports are filled with their own risks and moving through a pack of horses going 35-40 mph while balancing on the balls of your feet is certainly risky business. Well here are some photos from the deluge that was Keeneland on Friday. One silver lining was the fact that I hit a couple of exactas and came out up $46. The ironic thing is my 16 yr old son and his buddies, complete non-horse racing enthusiasts came out to check out the races, stayed for the first four and he left with a tidy $72 profit. Ah, the luck of the Irish and the foolishness of youth! Anyway, not a bad day for the family at the track in spite of the weather.

"And there they go in a mist of mud"

Rafael Bejarano up

"Neither Rain, nor Deluge, nor Torrential Monsoon will keep us from the Rail!"

Hats Off to Keeneland Contest

Okay so it just so happens there is a hat contest at Keeneland this Friday and coincidentally my return to the track as well. Unfortunately I think my entry in this contest might scar my 10 yr old daughter so I wont be entering....but if I were here are some dandy ideas I thought everyone might enjoy....in case you are "heading" to the track, you might want to enter......Hats Off to Keeneland Day -- Keeneland’s 3rd annual hat contest. 1st place in every category will win a package from the Embassy Suites. Grand Prize winner will receive an all expense paid vacation to Jamaica.

One outta two...Derby Top 7....More Keeneland!

Well, at least I got Lawyer Ron right. Who would have thought that Zito would be shut out of a Derby, not me but Little Cliff just was not up to the pace of the BlueGrass. I have edited my personal "Derby Watchlist" and I am convinced the winner can be found among the 7 I am tracking. I plan on reviewing each horse in depth over the next couple of weeks to try and convince myself that I can see a clear cut choice for a winner. In the meantime, it's back out to Keeneland on Friday (Royal Chase for the Sport of Kings (G1-Steeplechase), maybe I can get a photo of Barbaro as Michael Matz has him stabled at Barn 25.

Little Cliff wins the BlueGrass, Lawyer Ron keeps on keepin on

Lawyer Ron runs with heart and the look of a horse that wants to be in the lead at the finish line. Call it an "intangible" quality, call it my silly gut instinct, call it one bloggers opinion but you can almost spot his heart growing bigger as he pulls to the lead. Look for him to dispell the doubters tomorrow at Oaklawn and head for the derby as one of the top 3 favorites.

Now, I don't think the Derby winner is among the entries in the BlueGrass but I do think Nick Zito gets some luck to go along with his post position and an improving Little Cliff, who is still really just a 2 yr old in actual age (as we know all horses birthdays are Jan 1) will hang on to win and give Zito, who knows how to win at Keeneland, his derby horse.

Does the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) figure in your Derby exotic wagering?

Maybe-

In the past 3 years the winner of the BlueGrass has had a piece of the Derby action:

2005 Closing Argument (Placed in Ky Derby and Show in BG)
2004 Lion Heart (Placed in Derby and BG)
2003 Peace Rules (Show in Derby and Won BG)

More on the BlueGrass field after the post draw this morning!

Emotions run rampant first weekend at Keeneland

There were cheers, there were (almost tears), It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..but mostly elation combined with confusion. I found myself looking at a Trifecta in the 5th at Keeneland on Friday, opening day but Rafael Bejarano closed at the wire and after an agonizing 5 min review of the photo, my money(looking at a 5 figure payout) stayed safely tucked away in Keeneland's coffers. Oh well, there are worse places. Then, the Ashland and my chance to really score and I get totally sidetracked by betting my heart and going with my old buddy from last October, Dawn of War and well, we all know how that one turned out (where the heck did Chin High come from?). But it was a beautiful spring day until the skies opened in the ninth. Then Saturday dawned cold & frosty for April but we were ready and made our way back to the track with the hope that springs from a new day filled with new races where anything can happen, but only a marginally better day at the window, but some good racing and a great time and I'm up a mere $61(icing on the cake). The funniest part is that on Sunday I had a hunch on the first race and won $46 so that helped my bruised handicapping ego. Anyway, I did realize the races I enjoyed the most were the 4 1/2 furlong 2 y/o never been raced first timers. They were rambunctious and unpredictable in the post parade and right on through the exciting race. Keeneland's notorious speed bias is very much in play in these sprints where you only have workouts to go on and trainer/jockey combos and little else...how exciting is that? Anyway, this is one of my favorite times of the year to just get out to some races in person, just nothing like it to spend some time with family and friends in the beauty and tradition that is Keeneland. I hope everyone who reads this has access to a race track because there really is nothing like the sights, sounds, smells and sheer fun of going to the track. Now, what's this I hear about Brother Derek being awesome? I still think Barbaro and Lawyer Ron have run hard and looked tough and don't forget, it takes a tough horse the first saturday in May to navigate the traffic and have the determination to lead that pack across the finish line in Louisville. Look for the boss of the herd, not necessarily the fastest horse but the most dominant and add a little luck and we should have no trouble picking a Derby winner!

The night before Keeneland

T'was the night before Keeneland and all thru the house
All you could hear is the clicking of Joe’s logitech mouse.
Frantically combing the web for a tip
In hopes of hitting a superfecta over which he would flip.

When much to my crt stressed eyes did appear
a sure thing in the eighth named Gimmeabeer.
I knew right away this horse I had chose
with a wager to win right on his nose.

Soon visions of winning danced in my head
At odds of 50-1 I tossed in my bed.
And off in the distance I thought I could hear
Winner by a length its Gimmeabeer!

Who do you like in the future?

2006 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3

NO.		HORSE		ODDS
1.		*A. P. Warrior		15-1
2.		Achilles of Troy		50-1
3.		Barbaro		5-1
4.		Bluegrass Cat		15-1
5.		Bob and John		15-1
6.		Brother Derek		7-2
7.		Cause to Believe		30-1
8.		*Deputy Glitters		30-1
9.		*Discreet Cat		15-1
10.		First Samurai		12-1
11.		Keyed Entry		30-1
12.		Lawyer Ron		12-1
13.		*Like Now		50-1
14.		My Golden Song		30-1
15.		Point Determined		20-1
16.		Private Vow		30-1
17.		*Sacred Light		15-1
18.		*Sharp Humor		30-1
19.		Steppenwolfer		50-1
20.		Strong Contender		30-1
21.		*Sunriver		30-1
22.		Sweetnorthernsaint		50-1
23.		*With a City		50-1
24.		All Other Three-Year-Old		6-1

*An asterisk represents a new wagering interest in Pool 3

Derby Picture starting to come into focus

Barbaro took a big step Saturday, remaining undefeated, handling the fast dirt track, and fighting to win against a game Sharp Humor, no doubt benefitting from the perfect ride Prado game him. Now, looking ahead to next week-end and the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby promise to be final tune-ups for more derby dreamers. Here are some definite starters in what should be a good test for Brother Derek. Another interesting factor is that Bejarano (who also rides First Samurai) and Prado (rides Barbaro) are very talented jockeys who will have a choice about which horse they will be riding in the derby and these races may help them make up their minds! Don't you love this time of year!
Santa Anita Derby
Brother Derek (Alex Solis)
Point Determined (Rafael Bejarano)
Wood Memorial
Bob and John (Garrett Gomez) Deputy Glitters (Jose Lezcano), Greeley's Legacy (Eibar Coa), Keyed Entry (Edgar Prado), Like Now (Fernando Jara), Scanlon's Song (Ramon Dominguez), and Showing Up (Cornelio Velasquez).

WinStar and Welfare.....

SUNLAND PARK Saturday April 01, 2006 - Race 7

Estimated Local Post Time: 3:45 PM

Purse: $600,000

Distance/Restrictions: 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt, 3 Year Olds, STAKES

Pgm	Horse and Jockey/Trainer	Odds*
	Wait in Line (FL ) Ken Tohill / Chris Hartman	9/2
	Belligerence (FL ) Quyet Bui / Chris Hartman	9/2
	Sky Diving (KY ) David Flores / Bob Baffert	7/2
	Keagan (WA ) Scott Stevens / J. Kruljac	4/1
	Doctor Decherd (KY ) Shaun Bridgmohan / Steven Asmussen	9/2
	Wanna Runner (ON ) Victor Espinoza / Bob Baffert	5/2
	Welfare Cadillac (FL ) Ricky Frazier / Aggie Ordonez	15/1
	Blaze It (CA ) Felipe Martinez / Sal Gonzalez	10/1
	Might Be Hooked (KY ) Miguel Perez / Johnnie Nall	20/1

The only horses in this one that I remotely know are Doctor Decherd and Sky Diving but I gotta say that the 6 gets my vote for the worst name I have seen in a while!

Florida Derby next prep on the radar

There is a lot of workout info posted over at the NTRA site and this article on Barbaro's trainer Michael Matz is fascinating. I did not know his colorful background included a silver medal in olympic equestrian show jumping or that he was a survivor and hero of that unbelievable plane crash in Sioux City, Iowa in 1989. I liked Barbaro before but I didn't realize the trainer he has in his corner...that should do nothing but boost his chances. Interestingly enough, Matz cites his past experiences in Show Jumping events to help him map out a derby strategy for Barbaro, which is one that emphasizes the importance of a well-rested horse. I think the Florida Derby should help determine if Barbaro has what it takes to be a winner the first Saturday in May.

Dubai and the TBA today

The TBA is sponsoring the World Cup chat room today! Also, the 2006 Dubai International web0lg is packed with information and photos and the updates are coming almost every minute! Ain't technology great!!! Hope everyone has a great day of racing, I will be on and off the blogs having to take my daughter to a soccer game in 30 degree weather and snow flurries here in KY this morning.....I did make my Turfway picks, somewhat based on this weather:

Rushaway S. Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Purse $100,000
#5 Mark Of Success-Win ticket

Lane's End S. (G2) Distance: 1 1/8 Miles Purse $500,000
#6 Sharp Attack-Win ticket
Crazy bet of the day: $1 Superfecta 3,12,8,11

Lanes End Stakes (G2) $500,000 at Turfway Saturday

The field, with post positions, riders, and odds:

1. Malameeze (John McKee) 20-1
2. With A City (Brice Blanc) 30-1
3. Superfly (Jeremy Rose) 7-2
4. Starspangled Gator (Charlie Woods Jr.) 30-1
5. Tahoe Warrior (Chris DeCarlo) 9-2
6. Sharp Attack (Julio Garcia) 15-1
7. Seaside Retreat (Patrick Husbands) 12-1
8. Hemingway’s Key (Edgar Prado) 4-1
9. Laity (Corey Lanerie) 4-1
10. More Than Regal (David Flores) 15-1
11. Pair of Kings (Richard Bracho) 20-1
12. Silent Times (IRE) (Robby Albarado) 5-1
A win ticket on 6 looks like it might be a value play here (out of Storm Cat, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ready to rebound from poor outing in the Southwest). I don't know enough about the entries in Dubai (although I do know all the flags of the world thanks to John over at The Race is Not Always to the Swift.)

Dubai calls you to take a (short) break from picking your Derby Horse

Looks like ABC has an hour and a half coverage slated ths Saturday (3p EST) for the UAE Derby and the Dubai World Cup. I have to agree with John over at Not to the Swift that the sentimental favorite (and quite possibly the odds on favorite) Brass Hat is worth a look. Also, after watching a great DVD featuring Trainer Richard Mandela (On the Muscle), I hope The Tin Man can win on the turf under the lights. But just as quckly as a dust devil on the desert dunes appears and fades, our Derby Trail attentions quickly return to Turfway Park and the Lane's End Stakes where Laity and Strong Contender make up a field of Derby hopefuls and which is scheduled to air on ESPN from 5p-6p. I mention the tv coverage with the hope that it is not preempted! Really, did anyone give a damn about Cuba beating the Dominican Republic in another in a million televised baseball games? Argggghhhh! I just seem to pick the sports that have to claw out some semblance of coverage (yup, I am a former hockey player and rabid now luke warm-thanks to the strike fan). How ironic is that in this age of cable news bloat so inane that with every pseudonews story, you get rampant speculation on every channel, yet ESPN can't seem to commit to the occassional Horse Racing coverage. What a slight to Horse Racing and Jerry Bailey--some broadcasting debut!!! Oh well, maybe this week-end they can get it right. (Okay, rant is over)

Very cool feature at Louisville Courier Journal site

The C-J Derby Data Track has a really cool feature in that you can compare over 500 horses head to head on many different factors that statistically produce KY Derby winners. Very nice free feature even if you are not into all the Derby "hype".

Happy St Patricks Day

Always a great day, especially for me as it is my birthday and being of Irish ancestry, well it's pretty cool! Anyway, even though Jessica at Railbird has done a great job on this already, I wanted to include a note about the Irish Steeplechase Racing
My only frame of reference came last Spring at the Keeneland meet where I was at the rail for the Royal Chase for the Sport of Kings (Gr. 1) which is the first steeplechase event I have ever seen. Anyway, it was very exciting with the horses going around the turf and jumps so many times it makes you dizzy! These horses run for almost 5 minutes! It is insanely exciting. This race was a come from behind win by 1 length over arch rival McDynamo. Hirapour (Irish bred) and 9 yrs old at the time was my lucky pick and the winner. The athleticism of these steeplechasers and the excitment of the race caught me by surprise. Your heart stays in your throat praying there are no stumbles or collisions and that everyone stays up. At the end of this race, one horse (and I can't recall his name) collapsed coming off the track and was ultimately revived with a ton of cold water. It is really an unbelievable test of endurance, race strategy and sheer guts on the part of the horse and rider. I did come away promising myself to go to this race each year! So, may the luck of the Irish be with you and may we all find that superfecta ticket at the end of the rainbow!

Does a triple crown contender emerge this week-end?

Maybe, with no less than 4 stakes races this Saturday, all at 1 1/16 mile and on ESPN with Jerry Bailey, we might be seeing a future Triple Crown winner(also Patrick over at Pulling Hair and Betting Horses makes this bold prediction!) Well time to make some picks and spend a few dollars feeding our fine equine friends we all love to follow (or maybe cashing some tickets):

Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct (G3) (11 horse field): Keyed Entry, $5 win but the price may not be good enough to even make this bet.
*Triple Crown Note: Secretariat won this on his step to immortality!

Tampa Bay Derby (G2): Little Cliff, Bluegrass Cat $2 win and $2 Exacta

Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn (G3): Lawyer Ron, Private Vow (no bet)

San Felipe (G2): Sky Diving, Point Determined, $5 Win and $2 Exacta

Cause to Believe--cheap and gray!

California Derby winner Cause to Believe, ridden by Russel Baze, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be an addition to the Derby. He is being pointed to the April 8th Illinois Derby. I like this fella for two reasons, neither of which are very scientific. He was purchased as a 2 yr old in training for $30,000 (gotta love the rags to riches story line possibilities) and he is a gray! Might be worth keeping an eye on this newcomer.

TBA newest member! Blinkers Off

Very cool news! An email to Pulling Hair & Betting Horses inquiring about posting his Standings (see sidebar) has led to an unlikely invitation for a newbie like yours truly. Hopefully I can add something to the community as I really enjoy reading their posts. So the hope is that once in a while I might accidently write something interesting. Anyway, I appreciate the invitation and accept and appreciate being part of the TBA!

$16 Million "Green Monkey"

World-record priced juvenile named The Green Monkey--When I first saw this I thought it said "Green Money"!

John Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor have named their world-record priced Forestry colt The Green Monkey after a golf course the trio owns in Barbados (must be tough).
Todd Pletcher will train The Green Monkey.
The Green Monkey golf course opened in 2004, the same year The Green Monkey was born. The year is also known as the Chinese year of the Green Monkey.
Many have criticized this price but aren't a lot of things overpriced and doesn't it depend on perspective? I know a lot of Nurses (my wife is one) who think professional athletes of the human species are ridiculously compensated versus a nurses salary and pro players don't save lives on a daily basis. Also, to many in the world, any American salary is ridiculous considering what their annual per capita income may be. It is all relative to the demand and the value the industry and society places on it. The value of a Grade I winner, standing at stud for 10 years could easily double this $16 million. As with any investment, there is a gamble and as the price rises so do the stakes. Well, any way you look at it, a lot of people will be watching this 2 yr old this Fall and looking forward to his 3 yr old season. I must say, he is a beautiful looking horse!

Horsehats, an unlikely resource in handicapping

Interestingly enough, I found this site about a year ago, and actually purchased a great hat honourng a tour of Three Chimneys Farm and one of their stallions, Yes Its True. Anyway, they have an email you can sign up for that has the occassional handicapping pick. Anyway, I cashed a Win ticket this week-end based almost entirely on that pick so that was surprising and very cool. I did very little handicapping work and cashed a $26 win ticket. The most interesting part of this story is about who the handicapper is. I have attached the link to the image so click and check it out for an entertaining story of how this site and this handicapper got hooked up. In the meantime, what an easy way to make $26!

Brother Derek looking tough

Brother Derek looked good with Alex Solis holding him back and is primed for his next start April 8th in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (g1). This may be the horse to beat. The real test will be to bring him east. I realize the $$ and date probably fit his training better to stay at Santa Anita but for selfish reasons I would like to see him run at Keeneland in April!

Brother Derek and jockey Alex Solis
win the Santa Catalina, Saturday at Santa Anita.
Photo: Benoit

Derby Preps really heat up this week-end

March 4 - Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream, G2, 1 1-8M: First Samurai, Great Point

March 4 - Swale, Gulfstream, G2, 7 furlongs: Superfly

March 4 - John Battaglia Memorial, Turfway, 1 1-16M: Laity

March 4 - Santa Catalina, Santa Anita, G2, 1 1-16M: Brother Derek, Latent Heat

Remember this week-end!

Rank Handicapper Wins/Races Profit or (Loss) Analysis danahejk 5/8 $16.80

Tampa Bay Breeders' Cup 1. Dynareign 2. Icy Atlantic 3. Fort Prado

Gulfstream Park Breeders' Cup 1. Einstein 2. Gun Salute 3. Honor in War

Southwest S. 1. Lawyer Ron 2. Red Raymond 3. Music School

Pro Or Con H. 1. Moscow Burning 2. Overnightsensation 3. Cyber Slew

My picks for last week-end in Feb., too bad I had no real $$$ but hope this is just the start of things to come!

Fun contest at Public Handicapper

Bluegrass Cat gets off to a good start on the road to the Derby

WinStar Farm's homebred Bluegrass Cat kicked off his 3-year-old campaign with a dogged victory over 63-1 shot Deputy Glitters in the $121,000 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs Saturday. Bluegrass Cat won his fourth straight race since losing his debut start in June. The son of Storm Cat-She's a Winner (A.P. Indy) and trained by Todd Pletcher. He was ridden by Ridden by John Velazquez in this 1-1/16 mile test. "He was a fresh horse and ran exactly the way we wanted him to," Pletcher said. "Our intention is to return for the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III)."


Photo: Tampa Bay Downs

How do you handicap?

Let me count the ways! There are so many methods and angles, it is hard for a relative newcomer to keep up with the myriad ways to pick a pony! I have picked-up the "Authoritative Guide to Betting Thoroughbreds" from the BloodHorse just so I know enough to be dangerous with a Daily Racing Form. I also tried the DRF Formulator which I think helped save time and actually I had Dawn of War at about 46-1 at Keeneland this past Fall and finished in the top 40 in their online handicapping contest. Not really solid credentials but I'm learning. Anyway, I have started listening to Derek Simon's podcast and it has some really great strategies and picks to consider. I really enjoy sifting through workouts, past performances, distance and Beyers to look for a value play but realistically as a guy with 2 kids, 2 jobs and 2 horses, well...I must admit I am looking for shortcuts! If anyone stumbles on this blog and has any wisdom they would like to impart, please drop me a note! In the meantime I am planning on posting some picks for some upcoming races in preparation for my "serious gambling" during the Keeneland Spring meet...I still like seeing the ponies in person and making my wager at the track!

A day at the races

My 9 yr old daughter and I have a tradition that started last spring and we plan on continuing with every meet at Keeneland. We target a Friday, keeping our fingers crossed for good weather, sunny, spring or fall day, t-shirt or light jacket weather when we plot our getaway. I take off at lunchtime and head straight for her school where she gets out for a "dentist" appointment. We drive straight for our day at the races. We prefer to go mobile and hang by the rail and alternate to the paddock and then squish through the crowd and head to the winners circle. We both love the beauty of the day. Keeneland is a gorgeously landscaped, tradition-laden track where echoes of the past can be heard on every race day. We love to take it all in. We pull a wooden green bench down to the rail and stand from each post parade to the heart-thumping finish. We pick winners sometimes and that adds to the excitement. We watch the business in the paddock and marvel at the power and beauty of the horses. My daugther rides so she likes to watch the jockeys mount and balance their way on the backs of these powerful animals. The pounding hoofs, the roar of the crowd and the sheer fun of our day at the track have made me look forward to these days each season. I especially look forward to these days on a cold wintry week-end in February. Come on Spring!

Stevie Wonderboy OFF the Derby Trail!

Arggghhhh! Not only did I like this fella, especially for his connections, he will miss the Derby and there goes one of my RoadtotheRoses stable favorites.....
ARCADIA, Calif. (AP) - Stevie Wonderboy has a small fracture in his right front leg that will keep the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion and Eclipse winner out of the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Doug O'Neill said the colt came out of a workout Monday with the injury.

"Stevie Wonderboy worked great today, then came out of it with a little filling in his ankle," O'Neill said. "We X-rayed it and he's got a hairline fracture of his right front ankle. They're supposed to do surgery in a couple of days.

"He will be out at Merv Griffin's farm in La Quinta (Calif.) for 90 days before coming back into training."

Owned by hotel and television magnate Griffin, Stevie Wonderboy finished second behind Brother Derek in his 3-year-old debut in the Jan. 14 San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita.

Stevie Wonderboy was considered one of the early favorites for the Derby on May 6 at Churchill Downs. No 2-year-old champion has gone on to win the race for 3-year-olds since Spectacular Bid in 1979.

"We're all disappointed, and Merv was upset, but the important thing is that he'll be back," O'Neill told the Bloodhorse.com website

Lael Stable's Barbaro became one of the most accomplished sophomores in training with a three-quarter length triumph in the grade III Holy Bull. Under jockey Edgar Prado, the son of Dynaformer was making his main track debut following three previous wins on the turf. He completed the mile and an eighth in 1:49.30. Looks like a contender!

KY "YUM" Derby....oh no

What's next, the Sport of Kings, sponsored by "the King".....I guess it's too much to hope that the greatest 2 minutes in sports could resist the easy $$ of corporate sponsors...too bad they couldn't take a page out of the PGA handbook and go the way of The Masters....